New Season Nitrogen Pricing: Strategic Insights for 2025

As the agricultural sector prepares for the upcoming season, nitrogen fertiliser pricing remains a critical consideration. Recent analysis highlights the importance of early procurement strategies in the face of market volatility and geopolitical uncertainty.

Market Volatility and Geopolitical Disruption

Current market conditions are heavily influenced by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the conflict involving Israel and Iran. Disruptions such as the shutdown of Egyptian gas supplies and restricted access through the Strait of Hormuz have contributed to a volatile pricing environment. As of now, Nitram is priced at £364 per tonne for October and November deliveries, while terms for urea and related products have been withdrawn. Expectations suggest that new season urea prices may exceed £400 per tonne.

Historical Pricing Patterns

Over the past two decades, nitrogen prices have shown a consistent seasonal trend. In 15 of the last 20 years, prices have risen significantly during the season. Only three years saw stable pricing, and just two experienced notable declines. This pattern reinforces the strategic value of early ordering to mitigate the risk of in-season price increases.

Price Forecasts and AI Modelling

Advanced modelling techniques, including AI-powered quadratic trend analysis, project that wheat prices could reach £210–£220 per tonne by 2026. Urea prices are also expected to trend upward, potentially reaching £400–£450 per tonne depending on global energy markets and demand. These forecasts align with current market sentiment and provide a data-driven basis for procurement planning.

Feed Wheat and Ammonium Nitrate Price Ratio

Prior to the Ukraine conflict, the price ratio between UK-produced ammonium nitrate (AN 34.5%) and feed wheat remained relatively stable. This ratio peaked in 2022, corrected through 2023 and 2024, and now appears to be widening again in 2025. This trend has significant implications for agronomic planning, particularly in optimising Nitrogen Use Efficiency (NUE) and determining appropriate fertiliser application rates.

Practical Actions

Given the combination of geopolitical instability, historical pricing trends, and forward-looking AI projections, early action on fertiliser procurement is both prudent and strategic. Farmers and advisors should remain vigilant, monitor market developments closely, and consider locking in prices where feasible to safeguard margins and ensure timely application.

To hear more on this topic, tune into our June Agronomy Club Recording