Straw Prices 2025

On the whole, cereal crops have been shorter than normal due to the hot and dry weather we’ve had this season (see here for historical/seasonal weather trends). Combined with strong demand, straw prices are therefore likely to be high.

Trends in seasonal weather patterns and straw prices

Understanding weather and seasonal climate changes is crucial in being able to predict cereal growth, straw yield and the ability to harvest straw, which ultimately affects straw availability and pricing.

Table 1. Weather trends and associated impact on straw prices since 2023. (Defra information source here).

Straw Production

The AHDB dataset (Figure 1) illustrates GB big bale ex-farm prices since July 2023. This data suggests that this year’s big square bale prices might be around £10/t higher compared to this time last year (which was already c. 55% higher than the 5-year average price for straw), and reflecting an approximate 70% increase in both wheat and barley prices since August 2023. These prices show no sign of decreasing in the future, which could indicate a ‘new normal’ of c. £70/t+ on average across England for straw.

Figure 1. GB Big bale straw ex-farm prices for barley and wheat crops since July 2023.

Given the data trends so far, there are typically three correlations:

1. Spring Droughts → Low Straw Yields → Higher Prices (such as 2023 and 2025)
2. Excess Rain at Harvest (Wet July/August) → Harvest Losses → Higher Prices
3. Moderate/Good Weather Windows → Improved Supply → Price Stabilisation (such as 2024, despite the challenges earlier, the harvest window in late summer was mostly favourable)

Whilst we can draw some insights year-on-year, it’s important to consider the cumulative impacts on straw production and pricing, too. The carry-over effect from sequential extreme weather events are becoming more common, resulting in a straw market that is already tight and more vulnerable to further shocks.

Straw Stocks

Not only is straw production affecting the market, but stocks are too. Stock levels held from the two prior year’s harvests were housed early due to the wet weather last year (24/25) and certainly the wet autumn and late spring the year before (23/24). Combine this with declining livestock herds (as of the 1^st January 2025, the total GB cattle herd stood at c. 7.5 million head, a decline of 2% year-on-year from 2024 – AHDB), and this may reduce the demand for straw overall and ease prices downwards – though not drastically.

Straw Prices 2025

An update on current, indicative straw prices we’ve seen across the country are below in Table 2.

Table 2. Indicative straw prices we’ve been hearing across the country as of 31/07/25.

Actionable insights

Another year of constrained straw supplies is likely, setting the stage for high prices as demand outstrips what the weather has allowed arable farmers to produce, despite a continued fall in livestock herds.

With the weather being very catchy (i.e. frequent rain), it might be advisable to accept a slightly lower price for straw in return for a guarantee of getting it cleared in good time. This will help to avoid straw lying in the fields deteriorating and disrupting the following crop establishment.

For 2026 and beyond, indicators for next harvest will depend on autumn planting and what weather we receive in winter this year. Should autumn 2025 repeat extreme wetness (like 2023/24 did), it could set us up another poor straw year. However, if by contrast the end of 2025 allows normal planting and decent crop establishment, there’s potential for improvement. Prudence suggests planning for continued tightness of straw supplies.

Check out our articles on cultivations this autumn, and our thoughts on whether to bale or not to bale for further insights.