Reflect and Project: A Harvest 2024 Review

Ceres Research was delighted to deliver its first technical event for clients in early December at the Young Farmers Club in Essex. Alongside farming experts from our partners at Ceres Rural, we provided a comprehensive overview of the 2024 harvest season, reflecting on successes and challenges faced, before looking at strategies for the 2025 season. The event featured insights from various experts – a summary of each talk provided below.

Session 1: Looking back on harvest 2024 

A personal perspective – Tom Streeter 

Tom shared his personal experience at Harps Farm, highlighting the diverse cropping programs and the challenges faced, such as yield timing, break crop options, and weather impacts. Tom also discussed the economic challenges on the farm relating to cost of production, greater economies of scale, machinery and market prices. He emphasised the importance of managing risk through informed decision-making and investment planning, as well highlighting sustainability not just in terms of traditional environmental or business thinking, but also farmer mental health – encouraging farmers and landowners to check in with Yana if they or their team need support. 

Key take away: 

Manage the risk within the business by following informed decision-making. 

What does the data tell us? – Dr Alex Setchfield 

Alex presented data-driven insights, showing how the 2023/24 weather patterns affected cereal yields. The data conclusively revealed that excessive rainfall and higher temperatures are correlated to crop performance. He discussed the detrimental effects we will continue to see as climate change increases the likelihood of these weather extremes. Alex explained the mechanisms behind yield loss under excessive rainfall, which related to lower soil oxygen availability affecting root growth and corresponding shoot growth above ground. 

Figure 1: Winter Wheat yield example in response to rainfall and temperature this harvest year

Alex also discussed the lifecycle of ergot, considering its detriment to the crop this year, emphasising that the sclerotia (ergot bodies in mature heads) drops off into soils and germinates causing infection in the following crop in spring. Alex explained that there is little direct impact of ergot on wheat yields as such, but it is detrimental to the grain quality due to contamination, with cleaning required to make it marketable and safe for human consumption. Alex then focused on practices to reduce ergot, such as ergot–free seed, managing host grassweeds and manipulating crop rotations to reduce the sclerotia. Sclerotia can survive for 1-3 years and so a 3-4 rotation with unsusceptible crops could lead to a reduction in the number of viable sclerotia in the field to take hold of the crop.

Figure 2. Ergot (C. purpurea) disease lifecycle. Sourced from Bayer Crop Science (2021).

Key take away: 

Yield losses depend on the timing and type of adverse weather, with issues like waterlogging affecting crops at root and shoot levels. The fungal pathogen ergot thrives in cool, wet conditions during flowering, contaminating grain despite low yield impact. High-performing crops for 2024 include spring oats, spring beans, and winter beans. Integrated management strategies are critically important.

System reflections: what worked and what didn’t? – Jock Willmott 

Jock reflected on the positives and negatives in the 2024 season. Overworked soil and compromised timings were identified as areas needing improvement. It was noted that it was a challenging harvest when soils that were either very wet or dry were then drilled and followed by 2+ inches of rain. Those that drilled early then got caught out by disease. On the other hand, effective field drainage, deep soil loosening, light tine drills, the use of pre-emergence herbicides and a lot of patience were among the successful strategies.  

Jock discussed national crop trends in 2024, using data from Essex-specific yields, alongside the complete Ceres 2024 data, and Defra England’s dataset, highlighting that heavy land is becoming less consistent at achieving high wheat yields. Medium and lighter land is suffering less and potentially benefiting more from additional rainfall. Additionally, the typical yield penalty for later drillings is less than it used to be because of the warmer conditions associated with climate change.

Figure 3: Essex yields vs national yields across several crops

Jock discussed wheat protein content – looking at the data, there seemed to be a correlation between grain protein levels and seasonal rainfall, showing that higher rainfall during winter and spring tends to result in lower grain protein percentages. So, it is getting harder to achieve consistent protein content in the grain, but the mechanisms behind this change are still unclear.

Figure 4: Wheat grain protein and rainfall

Key take away: 

Warmer winters are influencing our crops, meaning adaptation in practice is required to continue maximising crop productivity. It is important to review growth stages, disease levels and crop health in early February and discuss potential strategies for the year ahead earlier than before. 

Session 2: Looking ahead to harvest 2025 

Sustainability of cropping programs – Alice Andrews 

Alice discussed strategies for sustainable cropping, focusing on the benefits of diverse rotations, including: 

• Control of pest and disease 

• Enhancing soil health/biology 

• Balancing nutrient replenishment in the soil 

• Spreading the risk for commodity prices and growing conditions 

•  Maximising winter what margins 

Alice covered financial aspects and gave some examples for winter beans, sprint oats and winter oilseed rape, where SFI actions were stacked to derisk and increase crop gross margins. 

Alice provided two case studies; one of beans and the second of spring oats, highlighting the importance of tailoring break crops to suit individual farms. Alice explained that whilst some agronomic practices maximise break crop yields, their success is largely influenced by the weather.

Figure 5: Wheat crop establishment showcasing rooting depth following a bean rotation (left) and oilseed rape rotation (right)

Key take away: 

Diverse crop rotations offer benefits across the farming business, such as improved soil health, workload balance, pest control, and reduced market risks. Break crops should maintain or enhance winter wheat yields, but must be tailored to individual farm conditions.  

Harnessing soil biology – Dr Dannielle Roche 

Danni explored the mechanisms behind soil biological activity and organic matter breakdown, discussing the important and differential roles that fungi and bacteria have in organic matter breakdown and soil nutrient bioavailability for plant uptake.

Figure 6: Mechanistic understanding of soil microbial activity in the breakdown of different substrates

Danni also explained the linkages between soil biology with physical and chemical soil properties, and their innate interdependence. Danni then discussed the potential future impact of temperature and water availability on soil microbial processes, and how to approach these changes resiliently. First, she highlighted the fact that ‘what we don’t know, we can’t measure!’ and suggested adding microbial analyses to soil testing to gain a better understanding of what is needed to promote the microbial community on each individual farm. Danni discussed options to promote soil biology in dry conditions, such as amendments like mulches or biochar to increase water retention of the soil. Similarly, she discussed options for water-logged conditions, such as adding gypsum (a flocculent) that can increase pore space in the soil, allowing for improved water infiltration. Danni briefly touched on the importance of having a diverse microbial community and general practices to promote this diversity including: crop rotations, cover crops/additions, and more tailored fertiliser application. 

Key take away: 

Don’t underestimate the importance of soil biology in a changing climate. There are multiple ways to harness this changing biology to promote soil nutrient bioavailability and uptake in crops, despite adverse weather conditions. 

Grants, SFI (sustainable farming incentive) and CFAs (contract farming agreements) – Rachel Bush 

Rachel finished off the session discussing SFI and other rural grants, and the financial performance and future viability of CFAs. Rachel suggested some SFI ‘easy wins’, highlighted in the table below.

Rachel also discussed how to use SFI to your advantage and provided some suggestions of where to start (below).

Figure 7: Ways of using SFI to your advantage, with an example of what to include in an arable rotation

Rachel explained capped actions (i.e. capped at 25% of the farmed area), which are provided below.

When discussing CFAs, Rachel explained that unfortunately 2025 harvest budgets are not looking healthy and the sharp reduction in BPS has compounded poor prices. Rachel highlighted that there is no ‘one size fits all’ in terms of CFAs, and contractors need to thoroughly understand their own cost of production when negotiating terms. For landowners, she highlighted the need to consider the longevity of the CFA relationship, and a landowners own ability and desire to manage SFI agreements themselves. 

Key take away: 

Providing your business with a stable income requires planning your rotations properly, don’t knee-jerk to current weather conditions – coordinate with your agronomist as to how options can fit into your business. 

Rob Metson – “Another excellent Ceres event, James and I thank the team for providing the professional and informative mix of speakers at the recent Reflect and Project 2024. Advice was encouraging, mind provoking and revealing. Here’s to some much-needed improvement and calming waters!”