Fertiliser Supply Update: Why Planning Ahead Matters More Than Ever

As the 2026 growing season is well underway, we urge our clients to act early in considering fertiliser requirements and supplies. The market is facing renewed volatility, and the window for secure, cost-effective supply is narrowing. Here’s a fertiliser supply update for the season ahead.

What’s Driving the Pressure?

1. EU Tariffs on Russian Fertiliser

The European Union has imposed anti-dumping tariffs on Russian ammonium nitrate and urea, two key nitrogen fertilisers. These measures, aimed at protecting EU producers from underpriced imports, have significantly reduced the volume of Russian fertiliser entering the European market. According to the British Agriculture Bureau, these tariffs will increase gradually over three years, which started earlier in July. Initially, the tariff is the existing base (≈ 6.5%) plus an additional fixed charge per tonne (about €40-45/tonne depending on type). Over time, these extra charges go up, eventually reaching high levels (c.≈ €315 to €430 per tonne) by 2028. In addition to reducing the EU’s dependence on cheap fertilisers from Russia/Belarus, the aim is to also protect domestic fertiliser production.

While the UK is no longer bound by EU trade policy, the interconnected nature of global supply chains means that reduced availability in Europe puts upward pressure on prices and tightens supply across the region.

2. CBAM: A New Carbon Cost

The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is a new EU policy designed to level the playing field between EU-based manufacturers (who pay for carbon emissions under the EU Emissions Trading Scheme) and foreign producers. From 1^st January 2026, importers of carbon-intensive goods—including nitrogen-based fertilisers—will need to purchase carbon certificates to match the EU carbon price.

The UK is considering its own version of CBAM from January 2027, which could further complicate the regulatory landscape and pricing structures. Still, the CBAM coming into effect in the EU from 2026 will have implications on the UK ahead of 2027. This will likely:

• Increase the cost of imported fertilisers, especially from countries with less stringent environmental regulations.
• Shift trade flows, as suppliers redirect product to markets without such levies.
• Encourage domestic production, but at a higher cost base.

These macroeconomic and policy shifts are converging with logistical constraints and input inflation. Increasing sunshine and less rainfall through the seasons have compressed delivery times. Glyphosate prices have also risen by 15%, and generic product availability remains inconsistent. These pressures are not isolated—they reflect a broader trend of input market fragility. These trends also reinforce the need for robust budgeting and proactive procurement as part of wider farm planning.

3. Chinese restrictions

China have recently in the last month suspended products such as urea and DAP being exported to global markets. It is suspected that this will last up to the next 6 months, further impacting the tight global supply.

Other chemical pressures this season

Alongside policy and trade impacting fertiliser supplies, early drilling this season has meant that crops are off to a good start and herbicide trade has tightened. Many growers have secured products early in preparation for any challenges that lay ahead with weather changes, especially when the cold and wet weather does eventually snap.

The rising demand and limited availability of products, especially herbicides for cereal and oilseed rape, are notable, particularly as both crops will cover more land across the country this year. Those planting winter cereals should be mindful that earlier sowing not only raises the risk of greater grassweed problems, increasing the need for autumn herbicides, but also makes it more likely that disease pressure, such as septoria tritici in winter wheat, will be higher come spring. Farmers would be advised to keep one eye on spring supplies of key fungicide products, once we move into the new year. Elsewhere, we expect to see price rises in glyphosate before Christmas, on the back of manufacturing cost increases, which are being passed on to growers.

What to do next?

To mitigate risk and maintain flexibility, you could consider:

• Securing your fertiliser early: it has been suggested to have 70% of your spring 2026 requirement on farm by the end of the year to allow sufficient time for sourcing, shipping and delivery of any additional requirement.
• Engaging with trusted suppliers: Use AIC-accredited providers, seek FACTS-qualified support where needed and accept deliveries when offered.
• Reviewing your cropping and nutrient plans: Align purchasing with agronomic needs and budget forecasts.
• Monitoring policy developments: Stay informed on CBAM and UK trade policy shifts that may affect pricing and availability.

The fertiliser market is no longer just about weather and demand—it’s now shaped by geopolitics, carbon policy, and global trade dynamics. Early planning is your best defence against uncertainty. We will continue to monitor developments and share updates. For tailored advice, please contact one of the team.